On polling night, after electors have cast their vote and snagged their democracy sausage on the way home, they might switch on the TV or refresh their social feeds to follow the progress of the count.
After several hours of waiting to find out who’s been elected, it can be frustrating to be told that an outcome won’t be known on the night because no candidate has received an absolute majority of the votes.
After a few more days of counting, if it’s a close contest, it might be reported that a result still isn’t certain and that a process called the distribution of preferences is required to determine the elected candidate.
So, what does this mean, and when will it be known who has been elected?
Tasmania’s Legislative Council is comprised of 15, single-member divisions. This means that at each election for a Council division, only one of the candidates will be elected. For a Legislative Council election, the successful candidate needs to receive an absolute majority of the votes – meaning that they will need at least 50% of the total formal votes, plus one extra vote.
For example, in an election that receives 10,000 formal ballot papers, a candidate would require 5,001 votes to be elected. When a candidate reaches the absolute majority figure, it means that it is mathematically certain that no other candidate could receive a higher number of votes.
While it is possible for a candidate to receive an absolute majority of first-preference votes in a Legislative Council election, this becomes less likely as the number of candidates on the ballot paper increases. When no candidate can be elected on first preferences, the TEC begins a process called the distribution of preferences.
Tasmanian elections use preferential voting systems. Though the details may vary for different types of elections, they all require voters to allocate a number to candidates on the ballot paper. This starts with allocating ‘1’ for the candidate who the voter would most like to be elected - their first preference. The remaining preferences tell the TEC who the elector wants their vote to go to next if their preferred candidate cannot be elected.
In a Legislative Council election, when no candidate has achieved an absolute majority on first preferences, the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded from the count. The votes they received are then transferred to the remaining candidates based on the next available preference marked on each ballot paper.
If a candidate reaches an absolute majority after votes are transferred, they are elected. If not, the process repeats: the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded, their votes are transferred according to the next preference, and the totals are recalculated.
This sequence - exclude, transfer, and recalculate - continues until one candidate reaches an absolute majority (at least 50% + 1) and the result can be declared.
Preferential voting plays an important role in ensuring that the final result of the election reflects the broader preferences of voters in a division, not just their first choice.
As preferences are distributed during the count, candidate rankings can change. The candidate leading at the end of one count may not be the same at the next count, or the one who received the most first-preference votes.
Political commentators and the media may use historical and demographic data to anticipate how votes will move between candidates, however, it is the preferences provided by voters that drive this process. The final result will only be declared by the TEC when a candidate reaches the absolute majority of the votes counted and any votes yet to be counted could not possibly alter the outcome of the election.
While the distribution of preferences can take time, it is an important process that ensures every formal vote continues to contribute to the outcome of the election.